I think I figured out my problem. I'm sure this is pretty obvious to everyone and their grandmother, but I'm not that talented with building things.
I have been looking for a piece of granite to put on the front ledge and still have been looking. Because of this, my front ledge is not slanted the correct way (out and down). It's pretty obvious to me now that the water sits on the ledge and slants inward and the water must have been soaked up by the vermiculite under the hearth and because the oven must be slightly slanted towards the back right the water ended up there and walked up the side of the oven. Make sense? For now I'm going to cover the entire front with a tarp until I get the granite.
[first picture of ledge from a side angle]
[second picture showing end of hearth and vermiculite beneath]
I will probably try and find a space heater since the vermiculte is probably pretty wet below and the oven will stay wet for a while
